In the US, it’s impossible for anyone to accurately say. That’s because we don’t have the test data. Test data allows you to make decisions that are semi-accurate because you know how wide-spread it is, if some groups are especially vulnerable (or others display some level of immunity), key hot spots or hot zones. Right now, the US is blind. I think I can say pretty confidently that the US as a country will remain quarantined (or “social distancing”) until public officials have a clearer idea of the number infected and where the healthcare system is overwhelmed (and that’s already happening in some places around the country).
Second, I hope you don’t think this is just a case of this virus comes in, we isolate for a month and then it’s done. There are multiple strains of the virus. And the virus is in different stages around the globe—the US is 2–4 weeks behind Italy. South America has barely been touched yet. Like with any major pandemic, there is likely to be a second wave and maybe even a third wave. Now I’m not saying we’re going to be quarantined forever. I’m just saying that it’s not likely that the “social distancing” stops in 2–4 weeks. A number of school systems have announced they won’t have classes in school for the rest of the school year (so through June). Lots of cities have banned or shut down any conferences or large events through May.